Illusory correlation: what is this bias, and how it leads us to errors

Do you know the phenomenon of illusory correlation? It is a very particular response tendency, and at the same time, an error that we make in our information processing, which leads us to establish relationships between two variables that either do not have such a strong relationship, or do not directly have relationship.

This cognitive bias would explain, to a large extent, the origin of stereotypes. But in what way? In this article we will tell you what the illusory correlation consists of, how it works, why it appears, what relationship it has with stereotypes and, in addition, we introduce a concept closely related to it and that may interest you: heuristics mental.

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Illusory correlation: a cognitive bias

We all have cognitive biases, a type of psychological effect. Cognitive biases are response tendencies maintained systematically in any situation; their function is to adjust and adapt, although they are characterized by leading us to errors (although not always), since

divert us from “normal”, rational or logical mental processing.

That is, these biases create distortions or inaccurate judgments, and can also cause us to interpret reality illogically. One of these biases is the so-called "illusory correlation", studied above all by social psychology (in fact, we can frame it in that field of study).

What does it consist of?

Originally, the term illusory correlation was coined by Chapman and Chapman (1967). Regarding its definition, It is about that tendency to base ourselves solely on confirmatory cases of our ideas or hypotheses, while we ignore non-confirmatory cases.

Through illusory correlation, we seek (and even “create”) associations or correlations between different variables that confirm our beliefs, and we end up perceiving the relationship between two or more variables as stronger than it actually is, is. Sometimes even such a relationship does not really exist.

This cognitive bias has a social application in stereotypes, which are exaggerated perceptions based on few details that we have of some people who share certain characteristics. In a certain way, stereotypes are a mechanism of mental economy, which allow us to "simplify reality" and save cognitive resources, which logically leads to errors.

Thus, in this sense, through the illusory correlation we overestimate infrequent behaviors in minority groups (for example, thinking that all gypsy people steal because only one of them has stolen from us). Normally, we apply the illusory correlation (many times unconsciously) to negative behaviors. Later we will delve a little more into the relationship between stereotypes and illusory correlation.

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mental heuristics

To understand the concept of illusory correlation, it is convenient that we first know the concept of mental heuristic. Mental heuristics can be considered "mental shortcuts" of our thinking.

In a generic way, we could say that they consist of mental rules that we use, unconsciously and automatically, to transform a complex problem into a simpler one. Heuristics help us simplify things, respond faster, and find efficient solutions.

Relation to the availability heuristic

In 1973, Tversky and Kahneman spoke of the illusory correlation as one of the possible errors that we can commit when applying a specific heuristic, called availability heuristic.

The availability heuristic, for its part, consists of a kind of "mental shortcut" that we use to evaluate something, and that makes us base ourselves on the information that we have more mentally available, which helps to optimize our effort/mental work, preventing us from spending unnecessary time on the process.

Thus, when we use the availability heuristic, we access the most recent or most easily accessible mental material in our mind (ie, to material that is more “at hand”), and we rely on such material to make a judgment or opinion on a subject matter.

According to social psychologist and professor Scott Plous (1993), "the more accessible an event is, the more frequent and likely it will seem." In addition, Plous also specifies that the more vivid the information, the more convincing it will be, and the better memory we will have of it. On the other hand, the more obvious something is to us, the more causal it will seem to us (ie, greater probability of thinking that "it" causes a certain phenomenon).

How does the illusory correlation work?

In this way, when we apply the availability heuristic, we can make different errors (cognitive biases). One of them is that of illusory correlation, which It implies using only (or with priority) the information that we have most available.

In this case, it is the correlation or association between different stimuli or variables (following the aforementioned example "gypsies" and “criminals”), the one that is most available in our minds, which makes us remember that association much more intensely.

This translates into what has already been mentioned, and is overestimating the frequency of appearance of said association. Thus, we think that this association occurs much more frequently than it actually does.

Relationship with stereotypes

We have seen that there is a relationship between stereotypes and illusory correlation, but... what exactly does this relationship consist of?

According to various cognitive psychology studies, the illusory correlation would actually be one of the explanatory mechanisms involved in the origin of stereotypes. That is to say, in a way, the illusory correlation would originate the stereotypes.

How do stereotypes act through this mechanism (or, as a product of it)? According to Mullen and Johnson (1990) and current research, people overestimate the correlation between two variables that are usually distinctive and different from others (for example, being a gypsy, from a lower class, homosexual…); this causes us to develop negative stereotypes towards certain social groups (like the ones mentioned).

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Why do we apply the illusory correlation?

As we have been seeing, on the one hand, the function of heuristics is to simplify our task when solving a problem or analyzing a situation. However, sometimes as a result of these errors originate, as would be the case of illusory correlation.

But why do we make this mistake or cognitive bias? Cognitive biases often act unconsciously and automatically, or because we have biased information processing (for even deeper reasons), or because our mind wants to save mental resources; This second case would explain the origin of the stereotypes.

For people (or at least, for our minds), it is much easier (which is not correct, nor fair, nor logical) to think that "all people of "X" collective or social category are like this", than to think that "Pepe is like this, Juan is like that, Paula is from this other manner…".

Thus, it would be a mechanism for saving resources, although logically it also involves other factors: racism, social heritage, false beliefs, the type of personality of each one, etc

Bibliographic references:

• Ariely, D. (2008). Predictably irrational: The hidden forces that shape our decisions. New York, NY: HarperCollins.
• Mullen, B. and Johnson, C. (1990), Distinctiveness-based illusory correlations and stereotyping: A meta-analytic integration. British Journal of Social Psychology 29, 11-28.
• Plous, S. (1993). Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making. McGraw-Hill, NY.
• Triglia, A. (s.f.). "Heuristics": the mental shortcuts of human thought. Psychology and Mind.
• Tverski, A. and Kahnemann, D. (1973). Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability. Cognitive Psychology, 5, 207-232.