The Law of Unintended Consequences: what it is and what it explains

Given the change, it is likely that different results will be generated. And if it occurs in a large and complex environment, affecting a large number of people, negative consequences are likely to appear; This is the situation posed by the law of unforeseen consequences.

This thought that change brings negative results is usually defended by conservative positions. But the truth is that the consequences achieved can also be positive, and as such we must consider the possibility that these beneficial results will occur.

In this article you will learn what is meant by the law of unforeseen consequences, what types of unexpected consequences exist, as well as what strategies can be useful to reduce or control it.

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What is the Law of Unintended Consequences?

The law of unforeseen consequences refers to the lack of foresight or anticipation of the results or consequences especially when these arise in a large environment, that is, one in which more people. Specifically, it points out that

human actions tend to generate consequences that had not been noticed, especially if these behaviors overlap each other when they are emitted by several individuals.

It is obvious to think that if more subjects participate or are affected, it will be more difficult to predict the consequences. However, there is also a greater tendency to contemplate the possible negative results. In this way, it is understood that in a complex situation, if something can go wrong it will go wrong.

Given the approach of this law, the idea that it is better not to risk change and maintain a conservative attitude is justified or reinforced. But on the contrary, this belief is not always fulfilled, since changes can lead to progress, and can also generate positive consequences.

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How can situations of unforeseen consequences be generated?

We have seen that the situations that are linked to the law of unforeseen consequences are characterized by being imprecise and by the possibility of leading to different results. A) Yes, there are different events or situations where unforeseen consequences are more likely to appear.

Examples of these situations could be: the impossibility of predicting the long-term effects of a change; not well defining the change you want to achieve; the appearance of a new situation that involves a change in the environment; or even the very resistance to change can lead to unforeseen consequences.

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The Different Types of Unintended Consequences

As we have mentioned, the unforeseen consequences can be multiple, being able to observe positive or negative results. Below we will see the different unforeseen consequences that have been observed. In most cases they are due to the result obtained from the approval of a law by the country, in situations where many people are involved.

1. Positive Unintended Consequences

Positive unexpected results are also known as serendipity. a serendipity is a discovery made incidentally without seeking such a result; on many occasions the subject had another purpose and unintentionally hit upon an unforeseen positive consequence.

Known examples of serendipity that have been a great advance for humanity on different occasions are: penicillin, discovered by Alenxader Fleming (and that turned out to combat a type of bacteria, being considered the first antibiotic), or X-rays, discovered by Wilhelm Conrad Rontgen, which currently allow the performance of such important techniques as computed tomography (CT).

In the same way, approving the change does not always generate negative consequences, sometimes it leads to obtaining a more positive situation. For example, in a study carried out in the United States on the effects that the legalization of the abortion law it was observed that the countries where abortion was accepted the crime rate decreased. Regulating an action instead of prohibiting it is sometimes a better decision to achieve positive consequences.

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2. Negative Unintended Consequences

Negative unintended consequences can appear as a result of an action that was intended in the first place. obtain positive consequences, that is, that a change was produced with the hope that the resulting situation would be better. But as we have already said and as the law of unforeseen consequences itself indicates, the results obtained can be very different from those expected and as such we cannot be sure of what we will finally achieve even if our intention is good.

As examples of this type of consequences we can cite the appearance of pests, or conversely the disappearance of an animal that performed a necessary function for our ecosystem. These events may be well intended, but the effects on ecosystems are often negative. This occurred with the introduction of rabbits to Australia for the purpose of increasing hunting: what was achieved was the appearance of a plague, since these reproduced excessively as they had few predators.

Another similar event, with good intention, was the elimination of sparrows in China to prevent them from eating the plantations and reduce the transmission of diseases. The final result was the increase of worms that devoured the crop, which in the first instance were controlled because they were food for the sparrows.

3. wicked results

In the case of perverse results, we observe that the consequences obtained are totally contrary to those intended.. In other words, the intention that the subject had gives rise to a panorama completely opposite to the expected or desired one.

An example of these types of results is the increase in the incidence of serious crimes as a consequence of increasing the punishment for minor crimes with the intention of reducing crime. Criminals increased the severity of their actions, since all types of crimes were punished intensely.

Another situation in which we observe that the implementation of a law with the intention of reducing harm causes more damage was the campaign to reduce the use of automobiles promoted by Mexico City and by Bogota; Contrary to being able to reduce the use of cars, the inhabitants bought other cars, in most cases older and polluting, to be able to continue moving with their transport. The result was an increase in private vehicles and consequently an increase in pollution..

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How to avoid compliance with the Law of Unintended Consequences?

It is impossible to completely avoid the law of unforeseen consequences, but we can do some strategies or be more far-sighted with the intention of decrease the chance of getting negative results. We will try to make the results more predictable or at least take into account and assess the different alternatives.

In this way, we propose different tips that may be useful for this purpose.

1. Try to think about the long-term effects

It is normal that when we consider a change or an action that has consequences, it is difficult for us to visualize the results that can be produced in the long term and focus only on those that will be generated more recent. But to reduce the effect of the law of unforeseen consequences we must assess all the possibilities at different times more or less close.

One technique that can be helpful is to apply the 10-10-10 rule., whose purpose is to assess the results that may occur at 10 days, at 10 months and at 10 years. This rule is adaptable depending on the situation, so we can lengthen or shorten the established time.

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2. Multiply the worst option by 4

This strategy consists of put ourselves in the worst situation and assess whether, if it were to happen, we could deal with it. It is usual that when we want to make a change, the positive results weigh more on us, that is, let us take more into account the positive consequences and do not value the negative ones properly, trying ignore them.

In this way, intensely increasing the negative results helps us decide if it is worth taking the risk or not.

3. Try to imagine what would happen if you did nothing

This technique highlights the importance of Assess how necessary it is to carry out the action immediately or, on the contrary, if we can wait. When we are not sure if the change is the best alternative or what consequences can occur, if we can, we will choose for waiting a while to see how the situation evolves and if it is possible to achieve greater security before executing the action. It may be best to wait.

4. Take into account and assess the possibility of each alternative

When we consider the different possibilities that a behavior can entail we must take into account not only the gravity but also the possibility of each. That is, we know that the consequences are unpredictable, but if we evaluate each one, we observe that some are more likely than others. Thus, there are alternatives such as suffering a plane crash that are less likely than having a car accident and, therefore, we must assess this difference.

5. You can remedy the decision

One factor that we must also consider is if the decision we will make can have a solution if we do not achieve the expected results or if the consequences are negative. If so, and it can be remedied, the risk of executing it will be less serious or intense.