Inference process: what it is, characteristics and stages

Within psychology, the term "inference" has been used quite frequently, the process through which people are capable of derive our conclusions starting from a series of premises, these being a series of propositions that are given prior to a argument.

The inference process has the implication of making the decision about what information should be gathered in around a specific topic or question, as well as collecting said information and combining it in some way shape. Inference is a widely used tool within social psychology to influence the social knowledge of other people.

In this article we will explain what the inference process consists of. and how it can be put into practice in different fields (social inference, clinical, etc.).

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What is the process of inference?

The inference process has the implication of decide what information should be collected on a given topic, and how to collect that information and combine it in some way. Within social psychology, the term social inference process has been used to refer to the way in which people are able to perceive, retain and use information Social.

Social knowledge, highly studied within social psychology, often implies that the observer has to go beyond the information that you have at your disposal, so you must form impressions, carry out judgments and evaluations, as well as carry out a process of inference.

The process of inference became very important in the development of the theory of social cognition by Fiske and Taylor, who defined the concept of social cognition as that set of processes through which the human being is able to analyze, interpret, remember and even interpret information about the social world. This intervenes in the way we think about ourselves, about others and also about the interpersonal relationships, as well as in the way in which we make sense of all the information previous.

The product of the inference process is the result of a reasoning process elaborated during said process. For the inference process to be carried out, there are normally 3 phases sequentially, which we will briefly explain in the next subsection.

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Phases of the inference process

Some authors who have carried out their research on the inference process defend that for it to develop correctly, it must necessarily go through 3 phases sequentially, so we would be talking about a theory or model normative.

Next, we will explain concisely what each of these phases that must be developed in the inference process consists of.

1. The collection of information

The first of the phases of the inference process would be the one that consists of collecting the information. The first thing a subject, the social perceiver, must do during this process is scrutinize and weigh all that relevant information before reaching conclusions.

However, it should be mentioned that there is evidence of the fact that the decision-making process on which information is most relevant is often influenced by the prior expectations of the subject (because of the knowledge that was activated).

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2. Information Sampling

Secondly, we are faced with the information sampling phase during the inference process, a moment that occurs when the person has already managed to decide what is the most relevant information, so that data must be subjected to sampling.

In this process, Fiske and Taylor state that if they provide us with an adequate sample, we usually use it quite successfully, but when it is oneself who must select the sample, it is common for them to make an error, such as one of those that we will comment on continuation:

One of those mistakes would be not paying enough attention to the sample size, so it could be quite unbalanced for the research to be valid.

Another mistake would be the fact that get carried away by extreme examples. Finally, a fairly frequent error would be the one made when using samples that are biased (there have been cases in what had been warned about the biased nature of the sample and even so it continued to be used for the research.

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3. The use and integration of information

In the third phase of the inference process, a series of mechanisms and rules are used that allow combining all that information that is available for the purpose of carrying out 2 essential forms of operations.

3.1 Establishing relationships between events

In the first place, we will mention the operation known as "establishing relations between events", which consists of perform a covariation diagnosis. For this, the pertinent data should be available, since there may be a strong influence of the previous beliefs of the social perceivers (illusory correlation).

3.2 The estimation of probabilities in the inference process

Second, there is the operation known as “probability estimation”, where several difficulties that could occur are identified, such as a "calculation bias" produced by the representativeness heuristic because this heuristic provides the subject with a quick solution. Another error could be made because of errors in the calculation of the joint probabilities, for ignorance of prior probabilities (base rate) and difficulties in handling the information.

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The corresponding inferences

Another inference process is what is known as the "theory of corresponding inferences", developed by Jones and Davis., which refers to the fundamental objectives of the inference process is to carry out predictions (a series of personal or internal attributions in order to predict behavior).

The goal of this inference process is to give an explanation of why people give external or internal attributions. A person compares his actions with other available alternatives in order to be able to evaluate the decisions that have been made. Furthermore, taking into account various factors, a person does not have the possibility to decide whether his actions have been caused by an internal disposition or not.

According to this theory, the corresponding inferences constitute an inference process that serves to directly infer a characteristic or personal disposition of another subject or group of subjects from the behaviors that have been observed. Of course, for the corresponding inference to be produced there must be an intention, since this is a precondition.

When it is intended to assign a series of characteristics to a specific person, this depends on a series of variables. Likewise, there is a problem when it comes to being able to carry out an inference process in order to exactly define the intentions because it is not easy at all, since for each observed action there can be a wide variety of possible motivations.

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The Clinical Inference Process

The clinical inference process is the one used within clinical or health psychology when developing a series of hypotheses and clinical judgments. by the therapist in order to decode information about the patient.

Within the clinical inference process there are 2 main types of inference that therapists can use when treating their patients in consultation.

1. diagnostic inference

The diagnostic inference would be made framing the symptoms detected in a diagnostic category through the problem expressed by the patient.

2. prognostic inference

This second type of inference is the one applied by the clinician in order to be able to carry out about the future course of treatment and the possible efficacy of therapy, in order to apply the one that best fits the particular case of each patient. In this case, the predisposition on the part of the patient himself to start said treatment also has an influence, since if there was not enough, the prognosis would be less favourable.

3. Prognosis in the therapeutic process

The prognosis of the patient in the therapeutic process is a type of inference carried out by the therapist based on the course of the disorder before, during, and after treatment has been completed.