How many people are there in the world?

Recently, the development of global policies and actions have been organized around one main question: how many people are there in the world? The answer to this question also raises other questions: where are they concentrated? Where no? How big a world population will there be in the long run? AND... How will we face the challenges that this implies?

In other words, analyzing this has been important to estimate some of the challenges and scope of the political and economic organization today. Below we will review the most recent estimates and analyzes made by the United Nations (UN).

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How many people are there in the world according to the UN?

One of the great tasks of the United Nations Organization has been to estimate How many people are there in the world today, and how many will there be in the medium and long term?, so that it is possible to adequately design the objectives and implementation of social and economic policies at the international level.

In the latest demographic report, dated June 2017, the UN has estimated that the current world population is 7.6 billion of people, a figure that maintains an upward trend despite the constant decline in fertility levels in several regions.

By the year 2030, the world population is expected to reach 8.6 billion people. By the year 2050 there will be 9.8 billion and in 2100 it will reach 11.2 billion. That is, according to the UN, the population will increase by approximately 83 million people per year.

Likewise, and given the downward trend in fertility levels, population growth is expected to slow down. However, this creates another challenge because there is also an upward trend in the aging of the population, largely because life expectancy has increased from 65 to 69 years for men, and from 69 to 73 for women. This constitutes one of the especially important challenges for health and social protection policies.

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The most populous countries today

It is not only important to know the current population figures, but population growth or decline trends between different countries in the medium term, so that it is possible to take the necessary measures to face the challenges that are approaching.

It is estimated that approximately 60% of the world's population currently lives in Asia, 16% in Africa, 10% in Europe, 9% in Latin America and the Caribbean, and only 5% in North America and Oceania. Today China and India are the countries with the largest population (they concentrate 19% and 18% of the total), however it is estimated that by the year 2024, India will surpass China.

Another interesting fact is that Nigeria, one of the 10 most populous countries, will exceed the number of population of the United States in the year 2050, thanks to the great speed with which it is growing. In fact, Africa is the continent that is growing the fastest.

In addition, population growth is expected to soon be concentrated in the poorest countries, which also represents an enormous challenge for social development, an issue to which the UN remains optimistic: it is expected that in the coming years the survival conditions of all countries.

Population growth and decline by region

Given the figures offered by the UN, it is expected that in the next 15 years the world population will increase by more than 1000 million people. These data are indicative and have been obtained based on an average of the fertility projection which compares the decrease in fertility rates in countries where there are still large families, compared to countries where the average has stabilized at two children for each woman.

Upward Trend: Africa

Despite the fact that there is great uncertainty about fertility trends in Africa for the next few years, it is expected that this continent will It will continue to grow at high speed (especially in its main regions), due to the large number of young people who are concentrated in these places.

This is how Africa will be one of the key pieces in the dimensions and global distribution in the short term; which also means that Asia will move to second place in terms of the continent with the highest population growth rates.

Significant decline in Europe

At the opposite pole, the population whose rate is falling is Europe. It is predicted that in 48 of the European regions the population is declining considerably, which will be especially noticeable from this year and towards 2050.

This is so because the fertility rates in that region are well below what is necessary to maintain population growth in the long term, with which it would be difficult to replace the generations of inhabitants in many years.

For several decades, the replacement fertility rate in Europe (which is the term by which the minimum fertility figures are known necessary for the population to be maintained over time -without considering migration-), is well below the necessary average of 2.1 children per women.

However, to calculate or forecast population growth and settlements, such figures should also be considered in comparison with the mortality rate. That is why even the very concept of "replacement fertility rate" has been much discussed by different experts, who consider it a criterion with little rigor.

The UN itself has identified three main elements in the growth of the current population, which in turn constitute a large part of the challenges of the international social programs as well as global responsibility issues: the fertility rate, increased longevity and migration international.