The rule of the tenth man: what it is and what it contributes to group reflection

What if the unthinkable became reality? Sometimes, during the creative process, all those who are part of a work team come to the same conclusions, perhaps because the matter seems to have an obvious solution.

This can cause a solution to be reached soon, but it can also lead to discarding alternatives that are perhaps unthinkable, but not impossible.

The tenth man rule It is a tactic in which if several people reach a consensus, to make sure that this conclusion is not a big mistake, someone is in charge of sowing doubt and proposing alternatives. We will see it much more clearly below.

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What is the tenth man rule?

The tenth man rule is a common sense tactic that holds that if nine out of a group of ten people have come to a unanimous conclusion, the tenth person should be forced to assume that the other nine in the group are wrongeven though deep down I agree with them. This tenth person should do everything possible to prove that the others make a mistake, and look for alternatives to what is stipulated by the group as a whole.

It should be said that this way of working is not exclusively applicable to groups with ten people. This tactic can be used in much smaller groups, of at least three or four people. As long as there is a majority, the rule of the tenth man can be used, being that person (either third, fourth...) the one that puts in doubt what the others have agreed so unequivocally.

The logic of defending a thesis contrary to what the majority of the group has agreed upon, despite even agreeing with it, is the be prepared for a possible eventuality or improbable thesis, analyzing scenarios that even remotely seem conceivable and drawing conclusions to address the unthinkable. Thinking like this prevents the group from making thinking errors, such as argumentative bias or homogeneous thinking.

Rule Origins

The origin of this rule is uncertain, but it is true that it has become popular thanks to the movie the movie World War Z, directed by Marc Foster (2013), film adaptation of the book of the same name by Max Brooks.

In the film, starring Brad Pitt as Gerry Lane, the world is about to collapse due to an epidemic that is turning humanity into zombies. All countries are desperate to deal with the new threat, save one: Israel. This state has built walls to protect itself from the infected, long before the outbreak even broke out.

Asked how it was possible for Israel to be prepared for such a remotely plausible event, a US intelligence agent country, Jurgen Warmbrunn, explains that the reason they anticipated such an improbable event was thanks to the rule of tenth man.

Explain what In the security council, if nine of its ten members agreed, the tenth was obliged to propose contrary situations to what was agreed At one point, it was raised about the impossibility of a zombie attack, with which the tenth member raised just the opposite, that it would be a real threat. This motivated the creation of security systems for such an eventuality, despite the fact that at first an attack by the living dead was not believed to be real.

Relation to argumentative theory

The tenth man rule is closely related to a concept in psychology, argumentative theory. This theory comes to say that, really, people do not reason with the intention of demonstrating something as true, but of use arguments as a means to defend our beliefs and opinions, no matter how wrong they may be.

People, once we have an idea, look for arguments that defend that belief. That is, we are victims of a strong confirmation bias. We look for everything that confirms our hypothesis or way of seeing the world, and everything that refutes or refutes it, that threatens our "logic", we reject or ignore. Just thinking about what is in line with our way of seeing the world can make us wrong, causing us to make bad decisions.

When we discuss a topic with others, who may or may not agree with our point of view, the confirmation biases of each are balanced out together. This means that our way of thinking, when contrasted with that of others, makes us understand that perhaps we are wrong or not and we change our minds or open up a little.

The problem, and this is what would be related to the tenth man rule, is that if all or almost everyone thinks in the same way there is a risk that everyone, in a group, commits the same mistakes. This may be because all the members of the group come from the same culture, have the same tastes, beliefs, education, field of study...

It is for this very important reason that, in any creative process, the group is made up of a multidisciplinary team, preferably from different cultural backgrounds. By contrasting different ways of seeing the world, not so dogmatic ideas are generated, which contributes to reaching a safer and more democratic decision.

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That contribute?

Closely related to argumentative theory, applying the tenth man rule, whatever the size of the group, can be very useful during group reflection. This is because it is a very good way to include in the creative process, whatever it may be, an argument that it can be a breath of fresh air, open horizons and avoid dogmatism or the group as a whole errs. There are two main advantages of this methodology.

avoid relaxation

Prevents the group from relaxing intellectually by talking, that is to say, that they do not accept a certain proposal for granted and consider it as the definitive solution.

When there is someone who questions it, the rest of the group can reconsider their own vision, reviewing what had been raised and accepting the possibility that they may have been hasty.

Gets out of the comfort zone

Since the consensual solution is questioned, whoever questions it must defend their own point of view of opinion, even if they do not support it internally. However, when doing you force yourself out of your comfort zone, which can give rise to very creative and imaginative ideas.

The Simpson... did they predict it?

The fame they have is known to all the Simpson, American series directed by Matt Groening, about his predictive ability. There are not a few chapters in which X thing is done and, after a few years, it has happened. We are not talking about something as common as the death of such a famous person, but more complex things that, at first, would be unthinkable.

To name a few: Donald Trump wins the presidency of the United States, the iPod is created, Disney buys 20th Century Fox, voting machines tricked, Lady Gaga performs at the Superbowl, a virus of Chinese origin causes a pandemic, (spoiler alert) Daenerys Targaryen sweeps Landing King…

All these things are mentioned in the series, years before they actually happened. Many have come to theorize that Matt Groening has some connection to the Illuminati or that the series has been made based on Nostradamus's predictions. However, it is possible that the explanation for all this is much simpler, being related to the tenth man rule.

Surely, in the creative process of each episode, when discussing what should go, in case the entire directing team agrees, someone sows doubt or proposes an idea that is really groundbreaking. Perhaps all the chapters in which these "predictions" appear, so unthinkable when their corresponding chapters were broadcast for the first time, they were the result of someone wanting to do something that no one had imagined and, a few years later, the unthinkable became reality.

Bibliographic references.

• Mercier, H. and Sperberg, D. (2010) Why Do Humans Reason? Arguments for an Argumentative Theory. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, Vol. 34, No. 2, p. 57-74, 2011. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1698090