The gambler's fallacy: what it is and how it affects us

No matter how hard we try, people's reasoning doesn't always follow a logical basis. On a large number of occasions, we are so absolutely convinced of the validity and soundness of our reasoning that we end up making countless mistakes.

This is what happens with the gambler's fallacy. A type of wrong thinking related to gambling and probability that can lead people to the point of losing large amounts of money in casinos and gambling. Next, we analyze this phenomenon.

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What is the gambler fallacy?

Before delving into the description of the gambler's fallacy, we must know what exactly the term fallacy consists of. The fallacy concept belongs to the field of study of logic and the debate about these goes back to the time of Aristotle.

Although there is no absolute consensus about the specific definition of this concept, we can describe a fallacy as an argument that may seem valid but actually isn't. Sometimes these fallacies can be generated intentionally with the aim of deceiving or manipulating others. people, while in others they are committed unconsciously, due to an error in reasoning or ignorance.

At first glance it may seem that a fallacy is easy to detect, but the reality is that sometimes these deceptions or errors in the reasoning are so subtle that it takes a lot of attention to identify them, leading people to make the wrong decisions.

In addition, the fact that an argument is considered a fallacy, also called a fallacious argument, does not necessarily imply that your hypotheses or assumptions are neither true nor false. It is possible that a reasoning based on certain hypotheses is a fallacious judgment, since what makes it false is the invalidity of the reasoning itself.

Once we understand the meaning of the concept of fallacy, it may be easier for us to understand what the gambler's fallacy is based on. This deception, also known as the gambler's fallacy or Monte Carlo fallacy, due to its relationship with gambling, consists of a logical fallacy by which people mistakenly believe that past random events influence or affect random events futures.

For example, if we throw a dice and the number three comes up, it is very possible that, due to the player's fallacy, we will reach the conclusion that it is highly unlikely that this same number will come out again in a second run; when, in reality, the odds are the same.

Because this type of logic deception is associated with the world of betting and gambling, its The main consequence is usually some type of economic loss on the part of the victim of the crime. fallacy.

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The wrong ideas that this logical error contains

As we have already mentioned, the main deception within the gambler's fallacy consists in believing that a past random event conditions the outcome of a future random event. However, there are some other misconceptions locked up within it. These are the following.

1. A random event is more likely to occur because it has not occurred for a period of time.

For example, if we go back to the case of the dice, this fallacy can lead us to think that if the number 3 has never come up after throwing the dice 10 times, it is more likely that it will come up on the next roll. But actually, taking out this number or any other has the same probability.

2. A random event is less likely to occur because it has occurred over a period of time

In this case the opposite phenomenon occurs. If in a series of rolls of the dice, the number 3 has appeared numerous times, the gambler's fallacy leads us to believe that it is less likely to appear on the next roll.

Another way of looking at it is when buying a lottery ticket. Usually, people are reluctant to buy tickets with repeated numbers. For example, any person will choose 74398 before 01011. The reason is that false logic makes us think that it is very unlikely that so many repeated or consecutive numbers will come out.

3. A random event is less likely to occur if it occurred recently

For this fallacy we can use the example of lotteries. If in the previous lottery draw the winning number was 18245, it is very possible that lottery players fall for the deception that this will not come out again in the next draw. However, the reality is that, strange as it may seem, the same possibilities exist.

4. A random event is more likely to occur if it did not occur recently

Finally, this false belief is the opposite equivalent of the previous one. On this occasion, the gambler's fallacy leads us to think, for example, that if in the game of roulette during the last spin the ball landed on the red color, it is more likely that now it will land on the black.

What are the consequences of this fallacy?

Despite the fact that, once explained, anyone can think that she would not fall for this type of deception. It is extraordinary to observe how this type of fallacy it affects and conditions us much more than we think.

These wrong thoughts appear unconsciously. One of the characteristics of this gambler's fallacy is that people think we are better at calculating odds than we really are.

The absolute conviction of previous misconceptions, can lead people to lose large sums of money or even property. Let's not forget that games of chance can be addictive and that there are more and more betting and games of chance in which people can participate without leaving their living room.

If to the addiction that these games generate, we add the fact that no person is free from the influence of the gambler's fallacy, we will obtain as a result a large number of people losing large sums of money without being aware of the thinking errors that are leading them to it.