The horoscope is a scam: we explain why

The horoscope and astrology are very commonly used to predict the future. There are many newspapers and web pages that obtain a significant number of readers because they include daily predictions based on the zodiac sign, not always following mathematical and astrological methods "Officers".

However, not only are the interpretations of newspapers and websites highly susceptible to being false, but the horoscope itself is a scam; We explain why using very basic psychological concepts.

What is the horoscope?

"Horoscope" is a term of Greek origin; "Horoskopos" comes from the words "hõra" (which translates as "time") and "skopeo" ("examine", "observe").

The word refers to pseudoscientific system used to predict the future of a person based on the positions of the stars at his birth or at another special moment. Those who interpret these signs are called astrologers.

In western astrology predictions are based on the position of the sun, while in horoscope Chinese also takes into account that of the moon since it is based on a lunisolar calendar and not on one solar.

What are the signs of the zodiac?

The birth chart is divided into 12 sectors that represent different positions of the Ecliptic., that is, the apparent path that the sun makes around the earth when it is observed from the earth. Each of these segments is identified with a zodiac sign.

The signs of the zodiac represent the 12 constellations of the Ecliptic. Different characteristics are attributed to each of them, which are supposed to influence the psychology of people born at the time when the Sun crossed a certain sector of the Ecliptic.

Each sign is attributed a "positive" or "negative" pole (extroverted and active versus introverted and passive) and an element (water, air, earth or fire). Other important elements in addition to the zodiacal signs are the planets, which are also said to influence the personality, and the so-called "houses", which determine the relative influence of each planet on the psychology of the person.

How is it interpreted?

The birth chart is calculated using the exact date of the person's birth, including hours and minutes, and the latitude and longitude of the place where it occurred.

The calculations of the astral chart have the objective of locating the "Right Ascension of the Midheaven", which supposedly determines which planets influenced our personality at the time when we were born.

Within astrology it is considered that the interpretations made using only the position of the planets have null validity: according to horoscope experts it is necessary to do a series of mathematical calculations in an order determined. Howeveror most of the time these prescriptions are ignored, especially in newspapers and websites.

Scientific bases

Numerous studies have been carried out with scientific methodology to study the hypotheses that propose astrology and horoscope, including longitudinal studies with control techniques reliable.

None of these studies have found that the probability that the stars influence our psychology is superior to having a random personality trait. Therefore, we can say that the scientific bases of the horoscope are null since there is enough evidence to affirm that the position of the stars at the time of birth does not influence the personality.

From astrology, various mechanisms have been proposed by which the stars could influence our behavior, such as electromagnetism and gravity, but they are hardly plausible from a physical.

Due to these reasons the horoscope and astrology are classified within the term "Esotericism", referring to non-practices. based on science but on apparently arbitrary methods whose learning requires to be trained by assumptions experts.

Psychological explanations

Although science in general has shown that the horoscope is a scam or at least that its predictions are not based on reality, input from psychology is needed to explain why so many people think it works.

The Forer effect

Scientific studies have shown that people tend to identify with very vague personality descriptions if we are told that they describe us specifically. This is known as "Fore effectr ”or“ Barnum effect ”.

Bertram R. Forer was a psychologist who had his students fill out a personality test. Later he gave them a supposed description of the personality of each one, asking them to rate from 0 to 5 to what extent they felt identified with him; the average result was 4.2.

In fact, Forer had given them all the same description based on horoscopes. The text included extremely vague statements such as “Although you have defects, you are usually able to make up for them ”or“ Sometimes you are outgoing, personable and sociable but other times you are introverted, cautious and reserved".

curiously, in other similar studies it has been shown that people tend to identify more with descriptions of this type, including those of some personality tests, which with the results of psychological tests endorsed by science.

This is because we more easily believe what people we consider experts say and because phrases ambiguous allow us to interpret the descriptions subjectively, projecting a personal meaning to their affirmations. Probably also influencing the fact that in general horoscopes tell us positive things, while the same does not always happen with serious personality tests.

The confirmation bias

We call "confirmation bias" or "confirmatory bias" to the tendency that people have to prefer information that confirms our beliefs over that that supports alternative hypotheses, which we ignore much more easily.

In the horoscope and other aspects of Esotericism, the confirmation bias manifests itself very frequently. Normally when we read a horoscope or a "professional" reads us the Tarot cards reach us a wide number of statements, among which we will pay more attention to those that seem to us to fit our self-image. In addition, we will remember to a greater extent the phrases that "hit" when describing ourselves.

Confirmatory bias is constantly present in our lives. Whenever we seek, receive, remember, or interpret information, we are inadvertently favoring the points of view that we already had. The only way to avoid this reasoning error to any degree is to be actively aware of when we are making it.

If you believe in the horoscope, probably when you read this you will prefer to think that those who are wrong are the scientists who have studied the hypotheses of astrology in a systematic way and not you; this is a good example of confirmation bias.

The horoscope is just one more scam

There are many pseudosciences, that is, disciplines that present themselves as scientifically plausible but do not actually follow the scientific method or claim to do so. In general, these esoteric practices are based on false premises and / or use arbitrary methods.

It is important to make clear that, while the sciences are considered as such because their perspectives are derived from prior scientific knowledge, pseudosciences make similar claims but do not have a solid body of research to back them up, so in many Sometimes they try to take advantage of the status conferred by the qualification "scientific" without having been able to prove their hypothesis.

Confirmation bias and the Forer effect, which have been widely demonstrated by science, can be enough to claim that the horoscope is a scamIf we add them to the studies that have refuted the hypothesis that the position of the stars at birth influences personality.