Planning fallacy: what it is and how it affects us

People have the need to set short, medium and long term goals. These can be achieved when we have a good organization of our activities.

On the other hand, not managing our time properly ends up harming the ability to fulfill our personal projects within the timeframe we want. The planning fallacy is a peculiar phenomenon which turns out to be an influential variable when making an estimate to achieve our projects. In this article we will explain what the planning fallacy is about, how to recognize it and control it.

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What is the planning fallacy?

The planning fallacy is a phenomenon that has been studied by various disciplines such as economics, statistics, psychology, etc. this difficulty It was first coined by economist and psychologist Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979., to describe people who have a tendency in organizations to overestimate the time a task will take, even taking into account that similar tasks in the past have taken longer weather.

The planning fallacy turns out to be a peculiar phenomenon or bias, which tends to influence when we make an estimate on the development of our projects. The greatest difficulty when planning a project arises when estimating the cost and the time it may take to complete it.

The difficulty begins during the initial estimation process, with the appearance of a bias that ends up influencing our way of perceiving reality. In other words, this bias has to do with the high estimation optimism that we give to the duration of an activity (we think we will do it quickly) task or project that we have to realize. Consequently, by having expectations that do not adjust to reality, people do not complete the activity within the established deadlines.

On the other hand, the planning fallacy has to do with the phenomenon in which plans end up not matching events, particularly this difficulty occurs in terms of time. It is important to point out that the planning fallacy occurs in the personal and work environment. This inconsistency between what we want to do (plans) and its development has consequences in terms of time, efficiency and productivity, because the person, by not making a real estimate of time, will present deficiencies in these variables. Finally, the individual ends up being detrimentally affected emotionally by presenting the difficulties generated by the planning fallacy.

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Origin of the term

At the beginning of the industrial age, people began to talk about the planning fallacy, although not using that name specifically. There was a time when industrial production took on a lot of additional relevance, to which the production time was added. That is why the main objective of all industries was to produce the maximum number of products in the least amount of time. Since then, both at the individual and organizational levels, planning has become a relevant activity. It was thus that in 1979 Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman supported the existence of the phenomenon entitled "planning fallacy". These authors understood that this difficulty was very common among people and that behind it there was a cognitive bias, a self-delusion related to the limitations that our perception of reality presents reality.

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What are the characteristics of the planning fallacy?

Over time, a detail has been discovered about the characterization of the phenomenon known as the planning fallacy. It is currently known that it is an illusory perception of time that favors errors in the planning of tasks, plans or projects. We can also understand it as a cognitive bias or self-deception that leads us to error when estimating the time of an activity. Next, we will detail the main characteristics of the planning fallacy.

1. Tendency to think in a very optimistic scenario regarding the course of work

Over time it has been possible to detect that at the time of planning a person tends to present a very optimistic visualization of the scenario where the activities, plan, project etc In other words, the individual conceives the idea and plans or projects from the conception that everything is going to happen normally, without mishaps, without unforeseen or unfavorable eventualities. This definitely does not end up adjusting many times to reality, because as we know, it is not unusual that in the course of some planning an unforeseen event may occur.

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2. Wishful thinking prevails

Wishful thinking has to do with the approach that gives greater influence to one's own desire over objective reality. In other words, the person will end up thinking with the desire that he has, subtracting greater value towards the real circumstances of the environment or what it would really cost to develop the activity, task or project that have in mind. We could also understand that the person is carried away by emotions and by "wishful thinking", through the strong desire to be able to carry out the activity, forgetting the eventual negative possibilities that may arise along the way.

3. You overestimate your own performance

At the moment that one begins to plan the project or task that you want to carry out, there is an inadequate interpretation of its performance, because will value positively or very favorably your skills and/or abilities, thinking that they will be able to assume the task in a very perfect way, very fluidly and of course, in a very short time. This difficulty of overestimating one's own performance becomes a central factor that occurs in the planning fallacy and ends up damaging when the individual collides with reality.

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Consequences of the planning fallacy

The main negative consequence promoted by the planning fallacy is inadequate time management and estimation. The aforementioned brings with it an inadequate management of resources, in the same way, it implies a deficient evaluation of the person's own performance, as well as their expectations far from the reality.

1. Failure to meet established deadlines

By making wrong estimates, people will most likely fail to perform and finish the task at the projected time. That is why they do not end up keeping their word or end up projecting an image of a liar or irresponsible person. Many times not meeting these deadlines generates conflict with others and with oneself.

2. Emotional and psychological difficulties

It should be noted that the most serious would be the cost over the negative consequences on the emotional plane.

In short, the planning fallacy brings with it a very high feeling of frustration that is often detrimental to the health of the person who suffers from it. Failure to meet the estimates that a person has projected produces discomfort and physical and psychological tension.

How to avoid the planning fallacy?

The way to avoid the phenomenon of the planning fallacy is to take into account past or previous experiences, with the purpose of rethinking that overestimation of time, our skills and abilities, adjusting them more to the reality of the context. In this way we can make a more realistic estimate of the time we would have to be able to carry out an activity and also consider unforeseen events. In this way we can avoid falling into this cognitive bias and in the same way we will avoid falling into frustration and tension that cause discomfort in our body.

When making an estimate it is important to consider all possible scenarios, not just favorable assumptions. It is important to consider objectivity, leaving aside our emotions or good wishes to start the activity. In the same way, it is perhaps necessary to take as a reference those experiences in people who have already been able to carry out the same activity or project, consulting them on the time it may have taken them to complete the same task.